Just two months after taking office, the administration of Nepal's Prime Minister Balendra Shah is showing signs of significant strain, with early reports indicating that his ambitious reform agenda is faltering.[1] The initial momentum that carried the political outsider, once hailed as a "Gen Z hero," into power appears to be dissipating amidst governance challenges.[1] This emerging turbulence in a key Himalayan state, strategically positioned between India and China, is a critical development for New Delhi’s regional policy.
A Mandate Under Pressure
The challenges facing the new government in Kathmandu are multifaceted and strike at the core of its ability to govern effectively. According to reports, key promises that formed the bedrock of Prime Minister Shah’s platform are now marked as "overdue," signaling a significant gap between rhetoric and delivery.[1] This lag is compounded by structural and political issues that are testing the resilience of his administration.
The government is reportedly grappling with cabinet instability, a chronic issue in Nepali politics that can paralyze policymaking and implementation.[1] Furthermore, the administration's decisions have been met with legal challenges, suggesting friction with the country's judicial and constitutional frameworks.[1]
Beyond these institutional hurdles, Prime Minister Shah's own governing style has come under scrutiny. He faces criticism for allegedly bypassing established institutions and resorting to controversial enforcement actions.[1] For an administration that came to power on a wave of popular support for change, these early signs of institutional conflict and stalled progress represent a serious challenge to its long-term viability and its capacity to deliver on its mandate.
The View from New Delhi
For Indian strategic planners, political instability in Kathmandu is a familiar and persistent concern. A weak, internally-focused Nepali government can create a permissive environment for actors and influences that are not aligned with India's security interests. The open border, deep cultural ties, and extensive economic interdependence mean that political tremors in Nepal are felt directly in India.
The current situation presents a complex picture. On one hand, a government struggling with basic delivery and institutional legitimacy, as Shah's appears to be, may have less capacity to engage in or execute large-scale strategic projects with external partners. This could, in effect, slow the momentum of initiatives, particularly those backed by Beijing, that New Delhi views with concern.
On the other hand, the erosion of the Prime Minister's political capital could lead to a power vacuum or a return to transactional politics. Such an environment could see a revival of the familiar pattern where Nepali political factions use anti-India rhetoric as a tool for domestic mobilization, complicating bilateral relations. The challenge for New Delhi is to navigate this uncertainty while safeguarding its core interests in a stable and friendly Nepal.
Implications for Regional Geopolitics
The faltering start of the Shah administration occurs against the backdrop of intensifying geopolitical competition between India and China in the Himalayas. India's neighbourhood-first policy has centered on patient engagement with Kathmandu, focusing on mutually beneficial projects in connectivity, energy trade, and development that aim to build long-term interdependence and goodwill.
The current turbulence offers an opportunity for India to underscore its role as a steady and reliable partner. By continuing to deliver on its commitments and maintaining open channels of communication through established institutional mechanisms, New Delhi can contrast its approach with the political volatility unfolding in Kathmandu. India’s deep-rooted ties with Nepal's bureaucracy, security forces, and civil society can serve as crucial stabilising elements, providing continuity when the political executive is in flux.
The key indicators to watch in the coming months will be Prime Minister Shah's ability to stabilize his cabinet, navigate the legal challenges to his authority, and begin delivering on his overdue reform promises.[1] His success or failure will have significant consequences not only for the future of Nepal but also for the delicate strategic balance in the Himalayan region. For India, the situation demands a posture of watchful engagement, ready to support stability while remaining prepared for the strategic implications of continued political uncertainty in its northern neighbour.
Originally published on Aegis Research Engine — an independent South Asia security & geopolitical intelligence platform.
