Nepal's FATF Grey Listing Signals Deepening Governance Deficits

Nepal's continued placement on the Financial Action Task Force (FATF) grey list, due to insufficient progress in addressing technical compliance deficiencies related to terrorist financing and proliferation financing, underscores a persistent institutional fragility that carries significant implications for Indian strategic interests. This development highlights Kathmandu's struggle with governance and its c[7]apacity to implement robust financial oversight, a challenge exacerbated by internal political dynamics and intensified great power competition on its soil. For New Delhi, the inability of its Himalayan neighbour to meet internatio[1]nal financial standards raises concerns about potential vulnerabilities along the open border, particularly regarding illicit financial flows and the broader stability of a critical buffer state.

Operational Posture Hardens

The FATF grey listing directly impacts Ne[7]pal's ability to combat transnational crime, a threat that has tangible security implications for India. Nepal's vulnerability to organised crime networks is evident in the recent rescue of 612 Nepalis from online scam centres across Southeast Asia, with Cambodian authorities also arresting additional Nepalis on criminal charges related to these operations. This scale of human trafficking exposes a critical weakness in Nepal's ins[1]titutional capacity, which directly affects regional security. For India, which shares a long and open border with Nepal, the internal st[1]ability of its neighbour is a non-negotiable strategic interest. The porous India-Nepal border already presents ground-level security chall[4]enges, as evidenced by a recent incident in Uttar Pradesh where police detained individuals and seized significant amounts of Indian and Nepali currency, underscoring persistent illicit cross-border financial flows. Such activities can be exploited for money laundering and other criminal e[7]nterprises, and any political instability or shift in Nepal's security posture could exacerbate these threats to India's security.

The Nepali Army has publicly warned about the spread of "false and fabric[7]ated narratives on social and mass media," indicating deep-seated anxieties about social cohesion and the potential for misinformation to be weaponised by domestic or external actors. This military intervention in the information domain, urging reliance on o[1]fficial sources, points to a state grappling with internal stability. For India, the prospect of instability fueled by disinformation campaigns [1]in Nepal is a direct security concern, given the shared open border and deep cultural ties. The government's broader reform agenda, including efforts to "purge partis[1]an unions" from universities and an anti-corruption drive, signals an attempt to assert state authority, but these initiatives confront powerful, entrenched political interests. The failure to address foundational aspects of post-conflict recovery, suc[1]h as the unresolved issues of the decade-long insurgency and the lack of genuine consultation with victims, creates a permanent source of social and political volatility. This internal fragility, compounded by the FATF grey listing, suggests a s[5]tate struggling to establish effective governance and rule of law, which could inadvertently create operational space for illicit activities that could impact Indian security.

Adversary Structural Strain

Nepal's continued FATF grey listing occur[5]s amidst a backdrop of significant economic and governance challenges, which create strategic openings for external actors, particularly China. The Nepali government itself has acknowledged "corruption and crony capitalism" as contributors to the country's weak economic performance, though the credibility of this self-assessment has been questioned by economists who suggest a lack of genuine political will for deep reform. While the economy shows resilience, with growth projected at 3.85 percent,[4] it remains fragile due to farm losses, domestic protests, and global geopolitical tensions. A surge in remittances and increased energy output provide buffers, but do[4] not address underlying structural weaknesses. New trade regulations, such as a mandatory Maximum Retail Price (MRP) on i[4]mports, have already caused disruptions and opposition from the private sector, further highlighting the precarious economic environment.

This economic vulnerability and governance deficit are being exploited by[4] China. Nepal's chronic struggle with infrastructure execution has created a vacuum that Chinese state-linked entities are filling. A new China-Nepal joint venture is set to manage the nearly completed Nagd[5]hunga tunnel, a strategic asset into the Kathmandu Valley, placing it under a management structure with significant Chinese involvement. The appeal of Chinese-led projects is amplified by the persistent delays p[5]laguing Nepal's own initiatives, potentially shifting perceptions and influence in Beijing's favour. The intensified US-China rivalry in Kathmandu further complicates Nepal's [5]balancing act, with both Washington and Beijing pushing competing agendas. China has issued clear warnings to Nepal regarding a US security pact, a U[1]S technology platform, and a Tibetan-related event in India, signaling that its relationship with Beijing is conditioned on deference to China's core security interests. This pressure campaign constrains Nepal’s strategic autonomy, potentially [6]destabilising its delicate internal political consensus with direct spillover effects for India. The overt US-China tug-of-war introduces a new level of complexity, risking [2]the erosion of India's influence in a critical buffer state.

Forward Outlook

The immediate indicators to watch will be the Nepali go[2]vernment's response to the FATF review and any subsequent actions taken to address the identified deficiencies in its anti-money laundering and counter-terrorist financing regimes. Specific legislative changes, enhanced enforcement actions against financial crimes, and demonstrable improvements in the prosecution of individuals involved in terrorist and proliferation financing will be crucial. The extent to which Kathmandu can secure convictions against transnational traffickers and dismantle scam syndicates will also be a key observable data point, indicating its institutional capacity to combat organised crime.

Furthermore, India should monitor the progress of Nepal's domestic reform a[3]genda, particularly Prime Minister Balendra Shah's efforts to tackle corruption and improve governance, as these could either stabilise the country or provoke political backlash from entrenched interests. The trajectory of Chinese involvement in Nepal's critical infrastructure, su[1]ch as the management of the Nagdhunga tunnel, will provide insights into the shifting geopolitical landscape and the effectiveness of India's "Neighbourhood First" policy. Nepal's decisions regarding its engagement with the US State Partnership Pro[5]gram, Starlink, and its approach to the Tibetan diaspora will serve as key indicators of Kathmandu's future strategic orientation and its ability to navigate the competing pressures from Washington and Beijing. India's capacity to offer substantive support for Nepal's development and se[7]curity, while respecting its sovereignty, will be critical in maintaining its position as Nepal's primary partner of choice in an increasingly crowded geopolitical landscape.[1]

Originally published on Aegis Research Engine — an independent South Asia security & geopolitical intelligence platform.