Foreign investors sold a record 63.2 trillion won (approximately $46B) from Korea's stock market in the first three months of 2026. KOSPI still climbed to 6,200.
That's the paradox Korean retail investors are trying to make sense of today.
What happened? On April 16, KOSPI hit an intraday high of 6,214.99 (+2.03%), breaching the 6,200 level for the first time since the US-Israel-Iran war broke out on February 27. The pre-war KOSPI peak was 6,347 on the same day. A circuit breaker fired on March 3, and March 4 saw the largest single-day drop in KOSPI history (-12.06%).
Who's been buying? Domestic institutions. On April 16, institutions bought a net 725 billion won by 10:55 AM, while foreigners sold a modest 44.8 billion and retail investors offloaded 681.8 billion. This is a dramatically different pattern from March, when foreign outflows averaged over 2 trillion won per day.
Why did foreigners flee? Three compounding shocks hit simultaneously. First, geopolitical panic as the Iran conflict sent global money racing to safe havens — European funds sold 26.4 trillion won and US funds sold 9.8 trillion. Second, a currency crash pushed USD/KRW to 1,530 won by March end, layering exchange losses on top of stock losses. Third, US tariff hikes on Korean goods from 15% to 25% clouded the manufacturing-heavy KOSPI's earnings outlook.
Can institutions carry the market alone? The case for yes: KOSPI's 12-month forward EPS surged from 666.6 to 814.9 points between March 31 and April 10, driven by Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix earnings surprises. The case for no: foreign ownership has fallen to 30.7% of market cap (historically 33-35%), and without foreign buying, the 6,300-6,350 resistance zone may cap the rally.
Scenario outlook: Base case (55%) is sideways 6,100-6,300 as institutions absorb the earnings season and geopolitics remain in a lull. Bull case (20%) requires the Iran ceasefire to become official and USD/KRW to re-anchor below 1,480. Bear case (25%) triggers if war escalates or tariff talks break down.
The single most important indicator to watch: whether foreign selling tomorrow is larger or smaller than today. That direction tells you more about KOSPI's support at 6,200 than any technical analysis.
For the full analysis in Korean, visit Snakestock
