South Korea's March 2026 semiconductor exports surged 151.4% year-over-year to $32.8 billion, the highest monthly figure ever for a single product category. Total ICT exports topped $43.5 billion, clearing the $40 billion threshold for the first time, and now account for 50.5% of all Korean exports.
What's driving the surge?
AI server demand. SK Hynix's HBM3E chips, used in NVIDIA and AMD GPU systems, are the primary engine. Computer peripherals (+174.1%) also set records as AI accelerator boards are increasingly manufactured in Korea. U.S.-bound exports grew +189%, faster than China (+141%), reflecting concentrated hyperscaler spending.
Is the KOSPI rally still justified?
SK Hynix has already risen +74% YTD (1,128,000 KRW as of April 17 close), and foreign investors net-bought over 5 trillion KRW in Korean semiconductor stocks in April alone. The market already knows the news. The real question is whether valuations fully price in the export strength.
Our view: not necessarily. If earnings estimates keep rising alongside exports, valuation multiples stay reasonable even as prices climb. Samsung Electronics faces an additional headwind from delayed HBM4 customer validation.
Scenario outlook (Q2 2026)
- Bull (25%): Export growth accelerates with HBM4 ramp plus more hyperscaler commitments
- Base (55%): Growth continues but moderates; absolute volumes remain at record levels
- Bear (20%): U.S.-China trade tensions reignite, IT demand contracts
We lean toward the base case. Maintain existing positions; add cautiously only after Q2 earnings confirmation.
For the full analysis in Korean, visit Snakestock
