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Correlation Is Pairwise. Multicollinearity Isn't.

mohit modiAug 22, 2026 • 6 min read

Correlation Is Pairwise. Multicollinearity Isn't.

A three-line example showing why the 0.8 heatmap rule misses real multicollinearity.

#datascience#statistics#python#machinelearning

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The 95th percentile is a Gaussian constant, and it moves the wrong way

ilya mozerov5d ago • 8 min read

The 95th percentile is a Gaussian constant, and it moves the wrong way

The knob nobody defends If you have ever measured a tail — p95 latency, a Hill estimator,...

#statistics#monitoring#sre#datascience

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A Higher Pass Rate Can Mean a Worse Model. The Math Is Simpson's Paradox.

Maya Andersson6d ago • 4 min read

A Higher Pass Rate Can Mean a Worse Model. The Math Is Simpson's Paradox.

We shipped a model update last quarter that moved our aggregate pass rate from 81.2% to 83.6%....

#machinelearning#statistics#llm#datascience

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Your backlog alarm is an accumulation statistic

ilya mozerov6d ago • 8 min read

Your backlog alarm is an accumulation statistic

The alarm that cannot see the thing it is watching I keep a small research tier in a git...

#monitoring#devops#sre#statistics

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Confidence Procedures Are Production Code

Daniel Romitelli5d ago • 9 min read

Confidence Procedures Are Production Code

I built a compliance audit sampling tool around a finite-population hypergeometric bound, then treat...

#statistics#sampling#python#testing

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🧩 How Close Are We to the Human Limit of Solving a Rubik's Cube?

Nikolás C. Meléndez6d ago • 2 min read

🧩 How Close Are We to the Human Limit of Solving a Rubik's Cube?

Can machine learning estimate the fastest time a human will ever achieve? For over two decades,...

#statistics#programming#datascience#webdev

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How far does SPX travel before the close? An empirical touch-probability surface from 1,082 sessions

GEX.liveAug 22, 2026 • 4 min read

How far does SPX travel before the close? An empirical touch-probability surface from 1,082 sessions

Originally published on gex.live/research, where the full write-up, the caveats and the reproduce...

#python#datascience#finance#statistics

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How accurate is the SPX "expected move"? A calibration over 1,088 sessions and 82,000 readings

GEX.live4d ago • 2 min read

How accurate is the SPX "expected move"? A calibration over 1,088 sessions and 82,000 readings

Every 0DTE dashboard quotes an "expected move" - the one-sigma range to the close implied by ATM...

#finance#statistics#datascience#python

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How accurately can complex option trades be signed? First grading against exchange truth

GEX.live4d ago • 2 min read

How accurately can complex option trades be signed? First grading against exchange truth

To build a dealer book from the options tape you must decide, print by print, who bought. For simple...

#finance#trading#statistics#python

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MCP server uptime isn't a spectrum: 78% never miss a day, 5.5% never answer

The Ops Log4d ago • 6 min read

MCP server uptime isn't a spectrum: 78% never miss a day, 5.5% never answer

Everyone quotes MCP server health as one number. I have been quoting one too: about 92% of a fixed.....

#mcp#statistics#devops#datascience

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How much of the SPX options book is new each day? Open-interest change across 1,081 sessions

GEX.liveAug 22, 2026 • 4 min read

How much of the SPX options book is new each day? Open-interest change across 1,081 sessions

Short version of a post on gex.live/research; the full write-up, definitions and reproduce block liv...

#python#finance#datascience#statistics

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A judge that agrees with your humans 92 percent of the time can be at 60 percent where the gate actually decides

Maya Andersson6d ago • 8 min read

A judge that agrees with your humans 92 percent of the time can be at 60 percent where the gate actually decides

TL;DR: Judge-human agreement is almost always reported as one number over a whole validation set....

#llm#statistics#testing#datascience

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Is intraday momentum still alive? We measured it on 1,085 SPX sessions of the 0DTE era

GEX.live4d ago • 2 min read

Is intraday momentum still alive? We measured it on 1,085 SPX sessions of the 0DTE era

Two peer-reviewed papers say the last half hour of the US session continues the day's direction. Gao...

#finance#statistics#datascience#trading

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Does open interest pin the index or widen its range? A decomposition over 1,084 SPX sessions

GEX.live4d ago • 2 min read

Does open interest pin the index or widen its range? A decomposition over 1,084 SPX sessions

Two published claims about what option open interest does to the underlying point in opposite...

#finance#statistics#datascience#trading

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Does 0DTE options trading raise volatility? We measured a published +9% claim on 1,083 SPX sessions

GEX.live4d ago • 2 min read

Does 0DTE options trading raise volatility? We measured a published +9% claim on 1,083 SPX sessions

Whether 0DTE options destabilise the index is a live three-way academic dispute. Brogaard, Han and.....

#finance#statistics#datascience#trading

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Expected Value Is a Function, Not a Prediction

E. Mitev6d ago • 8 min read

Expected Value Is a Function, Not a Prediction

Expected value is often presented as a betting concept, but the underlying idea should feel familiar...

#datascience#statistics#probability#abotwrotethis

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I Wasted 3 Semesters Doing Statistics Homework Wrong: Here Is the Framework That Saved My GPA

John Martal6d ago • 9 min read

I Wasted 3 Semesters Doing Statistics Homework Wrong: Here Is the Framework That Saved My GPA

- Let me make a painful confession: I used to think pulling 3:00 AM all-nighters fighting...

#statistics#education#highereducation#productivity

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Analyzing Football Data: Hull shock Man Utd with dream Premier League return — What the Numbers Say