Written down now, graded later, no edits allowed.
The Brewers and the Rays open the World Series on 23 October 2026. Before the first pitch, I'm putting five predictions about the Series' starting pitching on the record.
Most predictions get forgotten the moment they turn out wrong. These won't. After the final out, I'll run every starter's pitches through a little Statcast app I built and grade each one in public, misses included.
The main stat is CSW%: the share of a pitcher's pitches that end in a called strike or a swing and miss. A pitch the umpire calls a strike, or one the hitter whiffs on, is a pitch the pitcher won. To be ranked, a starter needs at least 75 pitches across his Series starts.
The predictions
- The CSW leader will clear 32%. The Series' most effective qualifying starter, using the 75-pitch minimum, will finish with a CSW% of at least 32%.
- At least one starter won't qualify. At least one pitcher who starts a World Series game will finish the Series with fewer than 75 pitches thrown as a starter.
- A rematch will produce a different arsenal. At least one starter making two Series starts will change the usage rate of one pitch type by 15 percentage points or more between appearances.
- Misiorowski will reach 105. Jacob Misiorowski will throw at least one pitch of 105 mph or faster in the Series, per Statcast.
- Freddy Peralta won't lead the CSW rankings. Despite his ALCS MVP performance, Peralta will not finish as the World Series' highest-CSW qualifying starter.
Two of these I'd bet on, two are coin flips, and one is me hoping for something fun.
Play along
The app is live, and an entire World Series fits inside its 14-day limit, so once the Series is over you can grade these yourself before I do. If you think I'm wrong about any of them, or you have a better prediction, leave it in the comments. Those get graded too.
The full write-up, with the grades, lands after the final out.
