Part seven of a prediction series where I am currently 0 for 2.
Short recap: I called a daily patch cadence at a fixed time. The time
drifted, then the cadence stopped. From Sep 13 17:28 the update
timestamp did not move for about 67 hours, and over those days visit
growth held around 1.2 to 1.3 million a day anyway.
Yesterday at 12:18 the developer shipped. So now I have one clean
before/after pair:
Concurrents: 12,149 -> 13,936 (+1,787)
Daily visits: +1.310M -> +1.306M (flat)
Concurrents moved with the patch. Daily visits did not. One pair of
mornings proves nothing, but it is a sharper version of what the quiet
stretch hinted at: on this game, shipping looks like it changes how
many people are in the servers at once, not how many new ones arrive.
I'm not predicting the next patch date. My record on that is public
and it is bad. I'll keep writing the numbers down every morning, and
the earlier posts stay up, wrong calls included.
Daily numbers, timestamped: https://ballvsballgame.com/
