Polymarket’s TWAP upgrade changed short-duration crypto markets significantly.

After the upgrade, price movements became smoother, and many bots that relied on fast price changes struggled to maintain their previous performance.

One strategy I found particularly interesting is the Polymarket TWAP 99 Sniper Bot.

The idea is simple: wait until one token reaches around $0.99, confirm that momentum and market conditions support the direction, and then snipe the highly favored outcome close to resolution.

How the TWAP 99 Strategy Works

Suppose a BTC 5-minute market looks like this:

YES = $0.991
NO  = $0.009

The bot does not immediately buy YES.

First, it checks whether the market still supports the YES outcome.

The main signals are:

• Polymarket YES/NO prices
• Order-book depth
• Bid/ask imbalance
• Liquidity
• Short-term momentum
• BTC price movement
• Chainlink data
• Binance and Coinbase prices
• On-chain activity
• TWAP conditions
• Time remaining

The basic logic is:

Token > $0.99
      ↓
Check Momentum
      ↓
Check Order Book
      ↓
Check BTC / Chainlink
      ↓
Check Liquidity
      ↓
Check TWAP Conditions
      ↓
Execute Sniper

Why $0.99?

The strategy intentionally buys at a high price.

For example:

Entry = $0.99
Resolution = $1.00
Gross profit = $0.01/share

The profit per trade is small, but the objective is to enter when the probability of the outcome winning is already extremely high.

However, $0.99 is not a guaranteed win.

A sudden BTC move, reference-price change, liquidity disappearance, or execution problem can still cause a loss.

That's why confirmation signals are important.

Momentum Confirmation

A simple momentum model can combine several time windows:

momentum = (
    0.25 * return_10s +
    0.35 * return_30s +
    0.40 * return_60s
)

For example, if YES is already above $0.99 and BTC continues moving in the direction supporting YES, the signal becomes stronger.

Order-book imbalance can provide another confirmation:

obi = (bid_volume - ask_volume) / (bid_volume + ask_volume)

Strong imbalance + strong momentum + high token price can create a higher-quality sniper opportunity.

Simple Bot Logic

A simplified implementation could look like:

if token_price >= 0.99:

    momentum = calculate_momentum()
    obi = calculate_obi()
    liquidity = check_liquidity()
    btc_signal = get_btc_signal()
    twap_signal = get_twap_signal()

    if (
        momentum > MOMENTUM_THRESHOLD
        and obi > OBI_THRESHOLD
        and liquidity
        and btc_signal
        and twap_signal
    ):
        execute_sniper()

The actual thresholds should be determined through backtesting rather than assumed values.

Risk Management

Because the strategy has a very small profit margin, risk management is critical.

The bot should control:

• Maximum position size
• Maximum daily loss
• Maximum market exposure
• Maximum entry price
• Slippage
• Fees
• Concurrent positions

A 99% win rate does not automatically mean profitability.

One large loss can erase many small wins.

Backtest Before Going Live

Before using real capital, record:

Entry price
Exit/resolution
Momentum
Order-book imbalance
BTC movement
TWAP condition
Liquidity
Fees
Slippage
PnL

Then measure:

• Win rate
• Average profit
• Average loss
• Profit factor
• Maximum drawdown
• Net PnL after fees

Paper trading is useful, but live execution can be very different because of latency, liquidity, and partial fills.

Conclusion

The Polymarket TWAP 99 Sniper Bot takes a different approach from traditional prediction-market strategies.

Instead of predicting the winner early, it waits for the market to become highly directional and then attempts to enter the favored token near $0.99.

The edge comes from combining:

High probability + momentum + order-book data + external crypto prices + TWAP conditions + disciplined execution.

The strategy is simple to describe, but making it consistently profitable requires careful execution and risk management.

Don't try to predict every market. Wait for the market to show you the winner, then snipe selectively.

🤝 Collaboration & Contact
If you’re interested in building trading bots, buy trading bots, collaborating, exploring strategy improvements, or discussing about this system, feel free to reach out.

I’m especially open to connecting with:

Quant traders
Engineers building trading infrastructure
Researchers in prediction markets
Investors interested in market inefficiencies

📌 GitHub Repository
This repo has some Polymarket several bots in this system.
You can explore the full implementation, strategy logic, and ongoing updates about 5 min crypto market here:

💬 Get in Touch

If you have ideas, questions, or would like to collaborate or want these trading bots, don’t hesitate to reach out directly.
Feedback on your repo (based on your description & strategy)

Contact Info
Telegram
https://t.me/BenjaminCup

tags: polymarket,trading,bot,architecture,tutorial,TWAP