Silver price forecast now turns on a narrow test near the 20-day EMA, where XAG/USD is still higher on the day but has already failed to carry its early European-session strength cleanly through $60.00.
Silver traded around $59.25, up roughly 0.8%, after giving back part of its earlier gains, according to FXStreet. That makes this a recovery attempt, not a confirmed bullish reversal. The traders most exposed here are short-term momentum accounts watching whether silver can close above the 20-day exponential moving average at $59.68.
Silver bulls run into the 20-day EMA as $60 stays just out of reach
The central tension is clean: silver is bid, but the rebound is stalling exactly where trend traders would expect supply to appear.
FXStreet puts XAG/USD near $59.34 at press time, close to the 20-day EMA at $59.68. That level matters because price has recovered toward it, but the moving-average slope is still declining. In plain terms, the rally has repaired some near-term damage, yet the short-term trend has not flipped.
Can buyers turn a test of resistance into a close above it?
That is the real question for this silver price forecast. A push above $60.00 would look different from an intraday probe that fades. The latter says sellers still control the recovery zone. The former would put pressure on bears and reopen the path toward the next technical level.
FXStreet also flags the July 6 high at $63.28 as the next upside reference if silver can secure a daily close above the 20-day EMA. Until then, the market is stuck between a recovering spot price and a still-soft momentum profile.
For related silver technical setups, see our coverage of Silver Price Forecast Stalls as $58.82 Blocks Bulls and $60 Rejection Sends Silver Price Forecast Toward $55.
Technical traders face a tight XAG/USD pocket near $59.25
The current chart is compressed around a few levels that now do most of the work.
| Level or signal | Source reading | XOOMAR read |
|---|---|---|
| European-session price | Around $59.25 | Recovery still alive, but off early highs |
| Press-time price | Around $59.34 | Close to first resistance |
| 20-day EMA | $59.68 | Main near-term ceiling |
| RSI | 45.49 | Momentum remains below neutral |
| Psychological resistance | $60.00 | Breakout line traders will watch |
| July 6 high | $63.28 | Next bullish confirmation zone |
| July low | $54.77 | Key downside support |
The RSI at 45.49 is the warning sign. It has improved enough to avoid a one-way bearish reading, but it remains below the neutral 50 line. FXStreet describes that as “subdued upside momentum rather than a decisive bullish reversal.”
No MACD reading is provided in the source material, so the cleaner signal here is the relationship between price, the 20-day EMA, and RSI. A daily close matters more than intraday noise because silver is testing a moving average that many short-term traders use as a trend filter.
If silver slips from current levels, FXStreet identifies the July low at $54.77 as the key support. The source does not provide an intermediate support band, so any tighter downside zone would be interpretation rather than verified data.
The numbers behind silver’s stalled rebound: 0.8% gain, $59.25 price, and the $60 trigger
The day’s move looks positive at first glance. Silver is still up about 0.8% near $59.25 in European trade. But the failure to extend beyond $60.00 changes the tone.
A market can rise and still disappoint momentum buyers. That is the setup here.
Kitco’s live silver screen showed bid 59.31, ask 59.56, and a day’s range of 59.02 to 60.22, with silver up 1.27, or 2.19%, on its quoted display. Those numbers show the same pressure point: silver has traded above $60, but holding that zone is the harder part.
For this silver price forecast, the key spread is small but meaningful:
- $59.25 to $59.68: The immediate EMA test.
- $59.68 to $60.00: The breakout pocket.
- Above $60.00: The level where buyers need follow-through, not just a print.
- Below the EMA after rejection: The setup risks sliding back into range behavior.
XOOMAR analysis: the risk-reward is unusually sensitive here because the next confirmed bullish target cited by FXStreet, $63.28, sits well above the current price, while the invalidation zone, $54.77, is far enough away to punish late entries if the EMA rejection hardens.
Energy markets and ECB risk are pulling silver in different directions
The macro pressure in the source is not the dollar or Treasury yields. It is oil, inflation expectations, and central-bank reaction risk.
FXStreet reports WTI Oil up more than 2% around $86, the highest level in more than five weeks. The move is tied to escalating Middle East energy supply risks, including the closure of the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, described as the southern gateway of the Red Sea, through which 7% of global energy is transported.
That matters for silver because higher oil prices can feed hotter inflation expectations. FXStreet’s framing is direct: if inflation fears rise, global central banks may tighten monetary conditions, and hawkish policy expectations usually hurt non-yielding assets such as silver.
Analysts at Rabobank said emerging signs of a “threatened blockade of Saudi ports” are already feeding through to energy pricing and warned the development “will not allow energy markets to ‘take the summer off’ rather than taking off.”
Rabobank also cited Brent at $91.5 at the time of writing, with crack spreads still round $70. That is not a silver signal by itself, but it explains why a metals rally can lose traction even when spot price is green.
The next scheduled macro trigger is the European Central Bank’s monetary policy announcement on Thursday. FXStreet says the ECB is expected to leave policy rates steady, while investors will focus on Christine Lagarde’s inflation commentary.
Miners, buyers, and ETF holders have different problems at $59
The source material does not provide evidence on silver miners, industrial buyers, ETF flows, or retail positioning. So the safest analysis is conditional.
Here is how the same level can matter differently without pretending we have flow data that was not supplied:
- Short-term traders: The 20-day EMA at $59.68 is a clean confirmation filter. A daily close above it strengthens the recovery case.
- Longer-term investors: The chart has not confirmed a bullish reversal while RSI remains below 50.
- Industrial users: The source does not discuss procurement demand, so the practical read is limited to price-risk monitoring around $60.00.
- ETF investors: No ETF flow data is supplied. Any claim about inflows or outflows would be unsupported.
That restraint matters. Silver commentary often jumps from a chart level to a sweeping demand story. This setup does not need that. The verified story is already useful: price is pressing resistance while energy-driven inflation risk complicates the policy backdrop.
For a rates-sensitive comparison within our FX coverage, readers can also see Treasury Yields Pin Silver Price Forecast Under $60.
Past rally comparisons are limited, but the EMA rejection still matters
The supplied material does not include historical silver rally data, gold-silver ratio history, or prior moving-average outcomes. That limits any hard comparison.
Still, the principle is clear from the levels FXStreet gives: one rejection at the 20-day EMA does not kill the recovery, but repeated failures near $59.68 to $60.00 would weaken it. The bearish read would become more persuasive if silver keeps testing that pocket and cannot close above it.
A cleaner bullish signal would require two steps:
- Daily close above $59.68: Confirms the EMA has stopped acting as immediate resistance.
- Decisive break above $63.28: FXStreet says this would trigger a bullish reversal and confirm the checklist of the Double Bottom formation.
Until those happen, the chart is still in repair mode.
Silver price forecast: $60 breakout or another range reset
The practical forecast is narrow and conditional.
If XAG/USD closes above the 20-day EMA at $59.68, the recovery has a stronger case to challenge $60.00 again. A sustained move beyond that psychological level would put $63.28 back in view. FXStreet identifies a decisive break above $63.28 as the level that would confirm a bullish reversal tied to the Double Bottom setup.
If silver fails at the EMA, the recovery probably resets into a range rather than a clean trend extension. The RSI at 45.49 supports that caution. Momentum is better than panic, but not yet strong.
If energy prices keep climbing and inflation commentary from the ECB leans hawkish, silver faces a tougher path because non-yielding assets tend to struggle when markets price tighter monetary conditions.
The watch item is simple: the next daily close around $59.68. A close above it strengthens the bullish case. Another rejection near the EMA keeps the burden of proof on buyers and leaves $54.77 as the key support level if the rebound loses shape.
Disclaimer: This XOOMAR analysis is for informational and educational purposes only. It is not financial, investment, legal, tax, or professional advice. It does not provide buy, sell, hold, price-target, portfolio, or personalized recommendations. Verify information independently and consult qualified professionals before making decisions.
The Bottom Line
- Silver’s rebound is not yet a confirmed bullish reversal while it remains near the 20-day EMA.
- A clean move above $60.00 could shift short-term momentum back toward buyers.
- Failure at current resistance keeps sellers in control of the recovery zone.
Originally published on XOOMAR. For more news and analysis, visit XOOMAR.
