More than $3 per ounce disappeared from silver’s weekly peak, and that makes the current silver price forecast less about Thursday’s drop and more about whether the failed push above $60 has confirmed a deeper bearish structure.
Silver fell more than 3.80% on Thursday as the precious metals segment weakened amid US Dollar strength and risk aversion tied to heightened tensions in the Middle East, according to FXStreet. XAG/USD traded at $57.62 after reaching a weekly high of $60.94.
Silver’s $60.94 rejection puts the bears back in charge
The cleanest read is also the harshest one: silver had a shot to hold above $60, but the reversal from $60.94 kept the lower-highs structure intact. In chart terms, XOOMAR reads that as a failed breakout attempt rather than a confirmed bullish continuation.
FXStreet’s technical framing is blunt:
“The market structure of lower highs and lower lows remains intact, an indication that the downtrend might extend in the near term.”
That matters because $57.62 is not just a price print. It shows the market walking back from the weekly high and testing whether the latest silver strength had real follow-through. When rallies keep failing below prior highs, bulls don’t control the tape. They’re forced to defend support.
The next bearish focus is the $55 area, specifically the July 17 low at $54.77. FXStreet says sellers need to push silver below that level for bearish continuation. If that breaks, the next listed target is the $50 milestone, followed by the November 21, 2025 swing low of $48.64.
For related technical context on this same metal, see XOOMAR’s separate note on Treasury Yields Pin Silver Price Forecast Under $60.
The numbers behind the XAG/USD slide: $60.94 rejected, $57.62 traded, $54.77 exposed
The key levels are now tightly defined. Silver’s weekly high sits at $60.94. The latest quoted level is $57.62. That is a drop of $3.32 per ounce from the weekly peak.
The immediate bearish trigger is not exactly $55, but $54.77, the July 17 low. That level matters because FXStreet names it as the hurdle sellers need to clear before the move can extend toward $50.
| Zone | Level | Market meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Recent rejection | $60.94 | July 22 high and failed upside test |
| Current trade | $57.62 | Market has retreated from the weekly high |
| Bearish trigger | $54.77 | July 17 low, key continuation level |
| Next downside marker | $50.00 | Psychological milestone |
| Deeper support | $48.64 | November 21, 2025 swing low |
| Bullish repair level | $63.38 | July 6 high after reclaiming $60.94 |
| Higher resistance | $64.00, then $65.79 | Psychological level, then 50-day SMA |
Momentum supports the bearish read. FXStreet says the Relative Strength Index (RSI) reversed toward the 50-neutral level and is aiming lower in bearish territory. That does not guarantee a breakdown, but it weakens the case for a fast bullish recovery.
A stronger US Dollar is squeezing silver from both sides
The macro setup is uncomfortable for silver. FXStreet identifies overall US Dollar strength as one reason the precious metals segment tumbled. Since XAG/USD is priced in dollars, a firmer greenback tends to restrain silver.
Risk aversion adds another layer. The source ties the move to heightened tensions in the Middle East, but the price action shows silver did not receive a clean haven bid. That is the important signal. Silver can trade like a precious metal, but it also carries an industrial-demand profile.
That split makes silver messier than gold during shocks. FXStreet’s FAQ notes that silver is used in electronics and solar energy, and that demand shifts can affect prices. In risk-off conditions, traders can buy dollars and cut commodity exposure at the same time. Silver can get hit from both directions.
For readers tracking the same geopolitical input across commodities, XOOMAR has a separate market note on Oil Spike Rattles Markets as Middle East Tensions Rise.
Middle East tension does not automatically rescue silver
Geopolitical stress can support haven assets, but silver’s reaction is less straightforward. FXStreet notes that geopolitical instability can lift silver because of its safe-haven status, though to a lesser extent than gold. Thursday’s move showed the other side of that trade.
The stronger dollar dominated. Risk aversion did not translate into sustained silver demand. Instead, XAG/USD fell sharply while the chart preserved its lower-highs and lower-lows structure.
XOOMAR analysis: that combination matters because macro fear and technical weakness are pulling in the same bearish direction. If Middle East headlines keep markets defensive while the dollar remains firm, silver may struggle to rebuild upside momentum unless it first reclaims the levels it just lost.
Traders, miners, and industrial users will not read $55 the same way
For bearish traders, the setup is straightforward. The $60.94 rejection, bearish RSI direction, and intact lower-highs structure keep pressure on $54.77. A break there puts $50 back into the conversation.
For bulls, the repair job is also clear. FXStreet says a move above $60.94 would open the way toward $63.38. Above that, the next resistance levels are $64.00 and the 50-day SMA at $65.79.
XOOMAR analysis: miners and industrial buyers face a different problem than short-term traders, but the source does not report any actual hedging, procurement, or equity-market response. The practical read is narrower. Volatile downside toward $55 can change planning assumptions, but the technical tape still argues for patience until either $54.77 breaks or $60.94 is reclaimed.
The December 2025 rally marker makes the $60 failure harder to ignore
The additional market context says silver’s break below $60.00 came for the first time since the rally that began at the beginning of December 2025, with the metal poised to finish the week with losses of nearly 10% despite a nearly 2% Friday gain.
That does not erase the broader bullish case for silver. The metal still has precious-metal and industrial demand channels. But it raises the burden of proof for anyone calling for another leg higher from here.
Round numbers matter because traders cluster around them. $60 was the upside line. $55 is now the downside line. The chart is forcing the market to choose.
Silver price forecast: $54.77 decides whether bears press toward $50
The near-term silver price forecast stays bearish while XAG/USD remains below the recent lower highs and the dollar stays firm. The first test is $54.77. A decisive break below that July 17 low would strengthen the case for a move toward $50, then potentially $48.64.
The bullish invalidation is just as specific. Silver needs to reclaim $60.94 and hold the move. Only then does the path toward $63.38, $64.00, and $65.79 reopen.
The watch item is not just price. It is confirmation. A break below $54.77 with the RSI still aimed lower would support the bearish thesis. A strong recovery above $60.94 would weaken it. Until one of those happens, silver remains trapped between failed upside momentum and a still-unbroken downside trigger.
Disclaimer: This XOOMAR analysis is for informational and educational purposes only. It is not financial, investment, legal, tax, or professional advice. It does not provide buy, sell, hold, price-target, portfolio, or personalized recommendations. Verify information independently and consult qualified professionals before making decisions.
The Bottom Line
- Silver’s rejection above $60 suggests bullish momentum has weakened.
- A break below $54.77 could confirm further downside toward $50.
- US Dollar strength and risk aversion are adding pressure to precious metals.
Originally published on XOOMAR. For more news and analysis, visit XOOMAR.
