Most Bali yield numbers you read online are fantasy. Listings casually assume 80%+ occupancy, quote gross revenue as if it were profit, and ignore operating costs and taxes entirely. So instead of another pitch, here is a transparent, conservative worked example — with the full interactive model published so anyone can change the assumptions and see what breaks.
The asset is real: a seven-villa boutique resort in Desa Singakerta, Ubud (Gianyar), Bali. Four villas operate today (live on Booking.com with real guest history); three are built to shell and need interior finishing. It is offered as a leasehold assignment, owner-direct.
The numbers, stated conservatively
- Phase 1 — 4 operating villas. Ask USD 780,000.
- Phase 2 — 3 shell villas, ~USD 100,000 finishing, ~3 months to operating. Ask USD 390,000.
- Whole complex — USD 1,180,000.
The anchor is contracted, not hoped-for: a NOI floor of USD 84,000/year on Phase 1 (USD 8,500/month gross minus USD 1,500/month OpEx). Against the USD 780,000 ask, that is an approximate 10.8% cap-rate floor — before any upside.
The interactive model defaults are deliberately cautious: 65% occupancy, USD 140 / USD 95 nightly rates, 33% OpEx. Push occupancy or ADR up and the cap rate climbs quickly — the point of publishing the calculator is that you do not have to take the seller's word for any of it.
The value-add layer
Phase 2 is the asymmetry: three villas already have structure, walls and roofs. ~USD 100,000 of finishing and ~3 months takes the resort from four keys to seven, against an estimated finished comparable value near USD 580,000 — a below-replacement-cost, value-add play rather than passive yield.
What to verify
- Leasehold, not freehold — assignment of akta sewa, ~27 years remaining plus a documented 20-year fixed-price extension. Confirm enforceability with Indonesian counsel.
- Booking.com history proves operations, but the account is not transferable real property — continuity is a credentials/playbook handover.
- Confirm Pondok Wisata vs Hotel Melati (KBLI) and Gianyar zoning in due diligence.
Try the model
Set your own occupancy, rates and OpEx, recalculate cap rate and payback, export CSV: santarabali.com/finmodel
Background and contacts: santarabali.com
Disclosure: I'm the seller. That is exactly why the model is public — a deal that only works on optimistic inputs does not deserve a buyer.
