Short read. This is a ~300-word brief based on the full analysis at Househeating Pulse. For the interactive charts, brand-level data, and source tables, open the original.
The clearest signal in the 2026 EPREL snapshot is not a breakthrough in low-GWP adoption; it is how much market exposure is still concentrated in R32 and R410A. Across 60,989 listed models from 777 manufacturers, R32 alone appears 13,935 times, or 22.85% of the catalog, while R410A contributes 1,896 listings and R290 only 537. Natural refrigerants as a group reach just 3.27%, so the registry is still structurally legacy-heavy.
That matters because the proxy risk stack is easy to compute from public data, even if EPREL does not record field leakage events. Using the IPCC AR6 GWP table, EU Reg. 2024/573 phase-out dates, and declared refrigerant codes, R32 sits at GWP 771 with a 2027-01-01 phase-out date, while R410A is worse on climate intensity at GWP 1,924 and R290 is effectively climate-neutral at GWP 0. The trade-off is handling complexity: R290 is A3, R32 is A2L, and R410A is A1. Lower GWP does not automatically mean easier deployment.
The type side of the market adds another layer. Air-water dominates volume at 30,452 models, far ahead of air-air at 21,065 and hot-water units at 9,228. Efficiency leadership sits elsewhere: water-water averages a SCOP of 6.15 across just 31 models, while ground-water averages 4.77 across 213. That gap is why the most relevant transition question is not abstract refrigerant purity, but which refrigerants are winning inside the largest installed segment.
For developers and data teams, the reproducibility angle is straightforward: combine EPREL Public API snapshots, the refrigerant universe table, and type aggregation slices; then filter on type=air-water and refrigerant=R290|R32|R410A to replicate the exposure map. The live canonical analysis is here: https://househeating-pulse.com/guides/2026-eu-heat-pump-refrigerant-leakage-risk-by-type
Read the full analysis with live data and model-level filters on the canonical page: https://househeating-pulse.com/guides/2026-eu-heat-pump-refrigerant-leakage-risk-by-type
Househeating Pulse aggregates 60,000+ EPREL-registered heat-pump models across Europe — efficiency rankings, refrigerant trends, country-level installed prices and subsidies. Data from EPREL, Eurostat, NASA POWER. Full analysis at https://househeating-pulse.com/guides/2026-eu-heat-pump-refrigerant-leakage-risk-by-type.
