Bitcoin briefly topped $67,000 after the tentative US-Iran deal, then slipped back under $66,000, a weak response while stocks and oil were already repricing relief.
That gap is the story. The market isn’t ignoring diplomacy, it’s discounting it until the paperwork catches up. Bitcoin changed hands at $65,845 on Tuesday, up 0.3% over 24 hours and 4.8% on the week, after touching a 24-hour high of $67,217, according to CoinDesk.
Bitcoin traders are treating the US-Iran deal as a signed contract, not a headline
The sharpest read is simple: traders are willing to stop selling risk, but they aren’t ready to chase the US-Iran deal bitcoin trade until the deal is signed.
President Donald Trump and Vice President JD Vance signed an electronic copy of a memorandum of understanding with Iran. Trump also said the Strait of Hormuz, already partially open, will fully reopen on Friday. That was enough to pull Brent crude below $83 a barrel after its biggest drop in more than two weeks.
Equities moved faster. The S&P 500 added 1.7% on Monday, while the Nasdaq 100 rose 3.1%. Bitcoin did not behave like an asset suddenly convinced that geopolitical risk had cleared.
"Oil dropped more than 4% and Asian equities jumped more than 3% on the ceasefire, but BTC barely budged," said Jimmy Xue, co-founder and COO of Axis. He called it "a relief move that the market hasn't fully bought yet rather than clear risk-on redeployment into Bitcoin."
XOOMAR analysis: that hesitation is rational. CoinDesk notes this is the third truce attempt, after bitcoin fully round-tripped relief rallies following both the April ceasefire and the June 9 strikes. A market burned twice is not likely to price an unsigned diplomatic step as final.
Profit-taking hit bitcoin, ether, and solana after the safe-haven scare faded
The move across majors looks more like profit-taking than panic. Bitcoin faded from its 24-hour high, but it was still positive on the week. Ether held up better, rising 2.8% on the day to $1,764 and 5.8% on the week.
Solana gained 3.2% to $73. XRP added 3.2% to $1.22. Hyperliquid’s HYPE led the majors again, up 6.3% to $69.
| Asset | Price cited by source | 24-hour move | Weekly move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bitcoin | $65,845 | 0.3% | 4.8% |
| Ether | $1,764 | 2.8% | 5.8% |
| Solana | $73 | 3.2% | Not provided |
| XRP | $1.22 | 3.2% | Not provided |
| HYPE | $69 | 6.3% | Not provided |
The important distinction: sellers used the bounce, but they didn’t crush the market. Bitcoin’s hesitant rebound says traders want confirmation from macro catalysts, not just crypto-native optimism.
Related XOOMAR reading: the energy side of this story connects with Iran War Jolts Southeast Asia Energy Security Gamble and Hormuz Reopens and WTI Oil Price Still Bleeds 10% Weekly.
The numbers behind the pause: oil, stocks, ETF flows, and missing positioning data
The cross-asset chain reaction was clean outside crypto. The diplomatic breakthrough pushed oil lower, lifted equities, and reduced immediate demand for crisis hedges. Bitcoin, though, failed to deliver a clean risk-on breakout.
The ETF signal explains part of that caution. U.S. spot bitcoin ETFs just emerged from four straight weeks of outflows totaling about $5.4 billion, including a record week near $3.4 billion. The streak has only just paused.
That matters because a pause in outflows removes selling pressure. It does not prove fresh demand has returned. CoinDesk’s phrasing is blunt: “The marginal institutional buyer has not clearly returned.”
One constructive signal remains. Coins have been moving off exchanges into cold storage, which can tighten available supply if demand comes back. That “if” is doing a lot of work.
Market inputs to track next:
- Bitcoin spot levels: Whether BTC can hold above the post-bounce range after fading from $67,217.
- ETF flows: Whether paused outflows turn into sustained inflows, not just slower redemptions.
- Oil pricing: Whether Brent stays under pressure after slipping below $83.
- Equity indexes: Whether the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 extend Monday’s relief rally.
- Positioning data: The supplied source does not provide open interest or funding rates, so those remain missing inputs rather than evidence.
For ETF-focused readers, this also links to the broader question of how bitcoin products behave when yield, flows, and risk appetite collide, a theme we examined in 15% Yield Tempts BlackRock Bitcoin ETF Buyers With a Catch.
Crypto has seen this movie before with failed relief rallies
The current caution has a direct recent precedent inside the source material. Bitcoin already reversed relief rallies after the April ceasefire and after the June 9 strikes collapsed.
That makes the June 19 signing in Switzerland the key dividing line. Xue said traders appear to be waiting for that signing before treating the deal as durable. Trump also said Monday that the deal may be called off if Iran does not agree to shut down its nuclear program.
XOOMAR analysis: bitcoin’s “digital gold” narrative often gets tested hardest during the first wave of geopolitical stress. In this case, the source does not show bitcoin outperforming as a crisis hedge. It shows bitcoin behaving like a high-beta risk asset that wants macro clarity before it commits.
Spot bitcoin ETFs change the read. They make institutional demand visible in near real time, and right now the visible signal is not strong inflows. It is the end of a heavy outflow streak.
ETF investors and crypto traders are reading the Iran deal differently
Not everyone sees caution as the right stance.
"It's a constructive setup for risk assets, including crypto," said Chris Perkins, incoming head of Franklin Crypto at Franklin Templeton. "With the SpaceX IPO behind us, an event that appears to have drained some retail liquidity out of the crypto market, it will be interesting to see if the improving macro environment brings retail back."
Perkins also said passage of the CLARITY Act, whose primary goal is to define whether digital assets are securities or commodities, would further accelerate institutional participation. CoinDesk notes prediction markets currently rate that passage a coin flip.
The tension is clear. Short-term traders are locking in gains after a bounce. Longer-term allocators may view paused ETF outflows and coins moving into cold storage as early stabilization signals.
Neither side has full confirmation yet. The macro calendar is crowded. The Bank of Japan raised its benchmark rate to 1%, its highest since 1995. The Reserve Bank of Australia is expected to hold on Tuesday. The Federal Reserve delivers its decision on Wednesday.
Three paths for bitcoin after the Iran signing
The next move in the US-Iran deal bitcoin trade likely depends less on the headline itself and more on the evidence that follows it.
Base case: The deal is signed, oil remains under pressure, equities stay firm, and bitcoin grinds higher only if ETF flows turn positive for several sessions.
Bull case: The signing removes the immediate geopolitical overhang, ETF inflows return, bitcoin breaks above the failed bounce zone, and ether plus solana outperform as traders rotate into higher-beta crypto.
Bear case: The signing is delayed, diluted, or challenged by the nuclear-program condition Trump flagged. Oil rebounds, equities fade, ETF outflows restart, and crypto gives back the relief bounce.
The practical watch item is the first 48 to 72 hours after the signing window: ETF flows, oil pricing, equity follow-through, and any available positioning data. If those confirm risk appetite, bitcoin’s cautious bounce can harden into a trend. If they don’t, this looks like another relief rally traders were right not to trust.
Disclaimer: This XOOMAR analysis is for informational and educational purposes only. It is not financial, investment, legal, tax, or professional advice. It does not provide buy, sell, hold, price-target, portfolio, or personalized recommendations. Verify information independently and consult qualified professionals before making decisions.
The Bottom Line
- Bitcoin’s muted move suggests traders want a signed deal before adding risk aggressively.
- Equities and oil reacted faster, highlighting crypto’s current caution around geopolitical headlines.
- Prior failed truce rallies are making traders wary of chasing another relief move.
Originally published on XOOMAR. For more news and analysis, visit XOOMAR.
