The World Cup has just started, and I’m running a live trading challenge where I start with $500 and try to grow it as much as possible by trading football-related prediction markets.
The core idea is simple:
I’ll be actively trading on Polymarket, while also copy trading some of the most profitable wallets using a copy trading system called PolyCup.
What I’m Building
For this challenge, I created a brand-new account with $500 and connected it to:
- Polymarket trading account
- PolyCup copy trading system via Telegram
The goal is to combine:
- My own live discretionary trades
- Automated copy trading from high-performing wallets
This allows me to compare strategy vs “smart money” in real time.
Why Polymarket + Copy Trading?
I’m using Polymarket because it enables:
- Sports prediction markets (football / World Cup outcomes)
- Real-time liquidity and pricing
- Easy entry/exit on event-based trades
On top of that, I’m using PolyCup (a copy trading tool built around Polymarket wallets) to:
- Track profitable traders
- Copy trades automatically
- Backtest strategies before allocating capital
Strategy Overview
The challenge runs for 4 weeks and includes:
- Weekly update videos
- Live trade tracking via Telegram
- Portfolio updates and performance breakdowns
I’m starting conservatively to avoid overexposure early, then gradually scaling into higher-confidence positions.
Example Trades (Early Positions)
Here are some of the initial trades placed in the account:
1. Mexico vs South Africa
- $40 on Mexico to win (~70% implied probability)
- Thesis: home advantage + stronger squad depth + crowd support
2. Morocco to Win Group
- $30 position
- Thesis: strong unbeaten run + undervalued compared to Brazil
3. Ivory Coast to Win Group
- $20 position
- Thesis: underdog upside + favorable early fixtures
These are structured as medium-risk directional bets with potential for early exits if odds move favorably.
Copy Trading & Backtesting
One of the most powerful features I’m using is wallet backtesting.
Instead of blindly copying traders, I can simulate:
- Historical performance
- Win rate
- Portfolio growth over time
- Risk-adjusted returns
This helps identify whether a wallet is genuinely profitable or just lucky short-term.
Useful Trading Bot (GitHub)
For anyone interested in building or experimenting with automation on prediction markets, here is a useful open-source project:
Polymarket Trading Bot (BTC/ETH/M Bot) GitHub
This repo includes trading automation logic that can be adapted for:
- Market scanning
- Trade execution
- Strategy testing
YouTube Walkthrough
If you want a deeper explanation of how these systems work in practice, here’s a useful video:
Polymarket Trading Bot Tutorial
It covers setup and strategy ideas for automated prediction market trading.
My Channel (Live Updates)
I’ll be posting weekly updates, including:
- Portfolio performance
- Winning / losing trades
- Strategy changes
- Copy trading results
Follow along here:
Final Thoughts
This challenge is an experiment in combining:
- Human decision-making
- Prediction market inefficiencies
- Copy trading intelligence
The goal isn’t just to “bet on football,” but to understand whether structured trading + smart wallet replication can consistently outperform random market participation.
Each week I’ll be publishing results and refining the strategy based on performance.
