The Fed Chair Who Won't Tell You Where Rates Are Going
Kevin Warsh just did something no Federal Reserve chair has done in two decades: he refused to participate in the dot plot, the Fed's quarterly projections of where interest rates will be in the future. At his first FOMC meeting on June 17, 2026, while nine of the 18 voting members signaled rate hikes are coming, Warsh abstained entirely.
This isn't a technicality. It's a statement about how the Fed should operate — and it reveals more about where monetary policy is headed than any dot would.
The conventional wisdom is that the dot plot provides transparency. Markets get a peek at what each Fed official thinks will happen, extrapolate the median, and price accordingly. But Warsh's refusal exposes what practitioners have known for years: the dot plot is fiction dressed up as forecasting. It's a quarterly ritual of guessing games that the Fed itself walks back within weeks.
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