The Numbers
The US trade deficit widened sharply in Q1 2026. American businesses imported roughly $90 billion more than they exported:
- Tariff front-loading
- Retaliatory tariffs from China, EU, Mexico
- Strong dollar making US exports less competitive
From Dock to Checkout
Tariffs are paid by US importers who pass costs to consumers. Core goods inflation hit 3.2% annualized.
Bottom Line
Assume imported goods inflation adds 1-1.5 percentage points to household spending through summer 2026.
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