The Current Picture: 4.5% and a Lot of Caveats
China GDP growth is near 4.5% in early 2026. The property sector is still deleveraging, consumer confidence is recovering slower than Beijing hoped, but fiscal stimulus and export resilience provide a floor.
The composition of growth has shifted dramatically:
- Real estate and construction (25% of GDP) are net drags
- Manufacturing and exports picking up slack in EV, batteries, renewables
- Services recovering unevenly
Real Estate: The Wound That Will Not Close
The property crisis is entering its fourth year. Major developers continue to restructure debt. Beijing has tried lower mortgage rates, a developer whitelist program, and direct bond issuance — none reigniting speculative demand.
Bottom Line
China 2026 is a tug-of-war between real estate decay and stimulus. Base case: 4–4.5% growth for the full year. Do not price in a collapse, but do not price in a rebound either.
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