The Nasdaq just logged 13 consecutive days of gains — its longest winning streak since 1992 — while the Buffett Indicator climbed to 227%, surpassing even the dot-com bubble peak of 200% in March 2000.
Bank of America called this an "upside crash": a pronounced disconnect between prices and fundamentals, consistent with their 2026 forecast for bubble-like price action. The S&P 500 sits at 7,165 with a P/E of 28x (vs. 100-year average of 17x), and the transition from oversold to overbought took just 11 trading days — the second fastest since 1982.
What history shows: After the dot-com reading of 200%, the S&P fell ~50%. After the 2021 reading, it dropped 19%. At 227%, the indicator is now 27 percentage points above either historical warning level.
Base case: A near-term pullback appears most likely as the market digests extreme overbought conditions. S&P 6,800~7,000 could serve as key support. A full collapse requires both big-tech earnings disappointment AND a hawkish Fed surprise — possible but not the consensus.
For Korean investors: KOSPI closed at 6,475 and KOSDAQ crossed 1,200 for the first time in 26 years. Given tight synchronization with Nasdaq, any US tech correction would create near-term pressure on Korean tech and semiconductor names.
For the full analysis in Korean, visit Snakestock.
