The S&P 500 closed at 7,022.95 on April 15, 2026 — its first-ever breach of the 7,000 level — as the Nasdaq logged an 11-consecutive-session winning streak, its longest since 2021. That 11-day run added more than 15% to the tech-heavy index as geopolitical risk eased and Q1 earnings season delivered.
What drove the rally?
Two forces combined. First, diplomatic signals from Trump that Iran "wants a deal" drained the war-risk premium that had pushed the S&P 500 down to 6,316.91 on March 30. Second, Q1 earnings came in strong. According to FactSet, S&P 500 companies are reporting 2026 Q1 EPS growth of +12% year-over-year — the highest since 2021.
Is this overheated?
Not obviously. The 12-month forward P/E sits at 20.4x (FactSet), above the 10-year average of 18.9x by about 8%, but still well below the 22.0x peak seen at end-2024. Expensive but not bubbling.
What about Korean investors?
South Korean investors have roughly 15.32 trillion KRW (approx $11B) in the TIGER USA S&P500 ETF (360750), making it the largest single ETF by AUM in Korea. The Nikkei 225 gained +2.48% on April 16, with TSMC reporting +55% AI-related revenue growth in Q1. That flow has positive spillover implications for Korean semiconductor names.
Three scenarios ahead
- Bull (30%): Iran deal + Big Tech earnings upside to 7,300-7,500
- Base (50%): Range-bound 6,900-7,100, steady earnings
- Bear (20%): Talks collapse + guidance miss, back toward 6,300
Bottom line
The base case leans constructive. Valuations are not stretched and earnings support the move. But the "TACO trade" works both ways — if Iran hawks return, the rally unwinds fast.
For the full Korean-language analysis with a five-point checklist before chasing the rally, read Snakestock
