An AI Hard Technology System Cycle Under Security Constraints: The 15th Five-Year Industrial Roadmap 十五五产业路线图：安全约束下的AI 硬科技系统周期

I. Core Judgment 核心判断

(1) We believe the core question of the 15th Five-Year period is whether a technology can be adopted long term by the state and large institutions.
(1) 我们判断，十五五的核心是“能不能被国家与大型机构长期采用”。

(2) The 15th Five-Year period is not a new internet or consumer cycle. Instead, it is a system-wide industrial cycle shaped by strict security constraints, driven by AI, the real-world deployment of hard technologies, and demand led by governments and large enterprises.
(2) “十五五”并非新一轮互联网或消费周期，而是在“安全硬约束”下，由“AI驱动丶硬科技落地丶政企需求主导”的系统性产业周期。

(3) Its industry features strongly match the mix of projects shown at the Hong Kong Innovation and Technology Expo:
① safety first, ② AI as an active doer, ③ hard technology built through engineering, and ④ a closed delivery loop between government and enterprises.
(3) 其产业特征高度一致于本次香港创科展所呈现的参展样本组合：①安全前置 + ②AI行动化 + ③硬科技工程化 + ④政企交付闭环。

(4) Target company criteria: ① Included in government or large enterprise procurement systems + ② Deeply embedded in city parks or infrastructure on a long-term basis + ③ Capable of delivering complete, integrated solutions
(5) 标的池：①进入政府或大型企业采购体系 + ②长期嵌入城市园区或基础设施 + ③交付整体解决方案的公司。

(5) Structural risks: ① Mismatch between technological maturity and engineering deployment; ② Uncertainty in policy and regulatory cycles; ③ Long payment cycles for government and enterprise projects, requiring stronger cash flow management and financing capacity
(5) 结构性风险：①技术成熟度与工程化落地的错配；②政策监管变化的周期不确定性；③政企项目回款周期较长，对企业现金流与融资能力更高要求。

级别：内部研究参考
用途：赛道判断 / 产业配置 / 政企方向校验
声明：本材料仅用于产业研究与趋势判断，不构成投资建议或交易依据；文中公司因其参展或技术类型被纳入分析样本，不代表任何推荐、背书或前景判断。

II. Big Picture of the Industry: Turning New Productive Forces into an “Operating System” 产业全景判断：新型生产力的“操作系统化”

从样本结构看，呈“操作系统式组合”，单点技术公司边际价值下降，系统集成与交付能力溢价上升。样本组合：①安全与合规底座；②AI + 大模型 + 空间计算引擎；③机器人 + 无人系统 + 低空等执行层；④生命健康 + 城市运行 + 工业制造等应用层；

III. Main Trends with High Certainty 高度确定性主线

Trend One: Safety becomes the top and basic rule of the industry 主线一：安全成为产业第一性约束

“无安全，不立项”将成为十五五常态化制度，而非政策阶段性要求。
样本企业：①数字与网络安全：360 数字安全、NetworkBox、亿格云、SLOWMIST、成都链安；②空间与基础设施安全：中科慧智（低空安全）、正态生态林衡（林草防火/入侵）、铭剑电子（频谱检测）；③城市与公共安全界面：正先电子（智慧城市家具）；④生态与能源安全：中国节能环保集团（降碳减污协同）；

Trend Two: AI moves from “decision support” to an “active actor” 主线二：AI 从“决策支持”走向“行动主体”

十五五的AI竞争关键，在于“AI是否被允许并能够直接执行任务”。

Trend Three: Life and health become a strategic application area for AI and hard technology 主线三：生命健康成为 AI+硬科技的战略级应用场

医疗健康在十五五并非消费题材，而是“国家级工程化产业”。
样本企业：①陶术：药物发现一站式平台（化合物库、CADD、分子对接、反向找靶）；②力微拓生命科技：无标记磁浮细胞分离富集系统；③华力智微：全自动智能药敏分析与报告系统；④GUTolution：精准益生菌干预方案；⑤MedMind：结合游戏平台的老年健康管理；⑥晶智感：多模态柔性传感器，支撑医学与人机接口；

Trend Four: Real-world use happens where data and computing power exist and can be safely regulated 主线四：在“有数据算力、能安全监管”的空间里落地

样本企业：①港深创新及科技园（河套）：生命健康丶AI 数据科学丶新材料丶微电子丶机器人；②市北新区：上海中环数字产业创新带；③上海智能汽车研究园：智能汽车与出行技术集群；④国星问天：航天科技教育与工程体系启蒙；⑤沈阳航盛科技：飞行辅助训练系统，支撑低空与航空工程人才体系；

IV. Overall Industry Outlook: “New Quality Productive Forces” in the 15th Five-Year Plan 产业总图景：十五五的“新质生产力”

这不是 To C 驱动的创新周期，而是由 To G / To B 需求牵引的结构性周期。
（1）安全与合规底座：①能源 / 降碳 / 基础设施 + ②数据 / 算力 / 网络安全
（2）AI与数字引擎层：①大模型 / LLM / 决策智能 + ②空间计算 / 数字孪生 / AIGC
（3）行动与执行层：①机器人 / 具身智能 + ②无人系统 / 低空经济 + ③智慧城市 / 智能建造
（4）应用层：①生命健康 + ②工业与制造 + ③城市治理 / 出行 / 物流

V. Appendix: Research Methods and Sample Selection 附录：研究方法与样本选取说明

本内参基于以下研究方法形成判断：
（1）以香港创科展及相关创新场景为样本池，观察已进入或试图进入政企体系的技术形态与商业模式；
（2）以“是否满足十五五产业约束条件”为筛选标准，包括安全合规、系统交付能力、长期嵌入性；
（3）不以公司规模、估值或融资阶段作为主要判断依据，而以其在产业链中的“功能模块角色”进行归类分析。
本研究更偏向产业结构判断，而非公司个体比较。

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