In December 2025, something remarkable happened in the fractious world of artificial intelligence. Anthropic, OpenAI, Google, Microsoft, and a constellation of other technology giants announced they were joining forces under the Linux Foundation to create the Agentic AI Foundation. The initiative would consolidate three competing protocols into a neutral consortium: Anthropic's Model Context Protocol, Block's Goose agent framework, and OpenAI's AGENTS.md convention. After years of proprietary warfare, the industry appeared to be converging on shared infrastructure for the age of autonomous software agents.
The timing could not have been more significant. According to the Linux Foundation announcement, MCP server downloads had grown from roughly 100,000 in November 2024 to over 8 million by April 2025. The ecosystem now boasts over 5,800 MCP servers and 300 MCP clients, with major deployments at Block, Bloomberg, Amazon, and hundreds of Fortune 500 companies. RedMonk analysts described MCP's adoption curve as reminiscent of Docker's rapid market saturation, the fastest standard uptake the firm had ever observed.
Yet beneath this apparent unity lies a troubling question that few in the industry seem willing to confront directly. What happens when you standardise the plumbing before you fully understand what will flow through it? What if the orchestration patterns being cemented into protocol specifications today prove fundamentally misaligned with the reasoning capabilities that will emerge tomorrow?
The history of technology is littered with standards that seemed essential at the time but later constrained innovation in ways their creators never anticipated. The OSI networking model, Ada programming language, and countless other well-intentioned standardisation efforts demonstrate how premature consensus can lock entire ecosystems into architectural choices that later prove suboptimal. As one researcher noted in a University of Michigan analysis, standardisation increases technological efficiency but can also prolong existing technologies to an excessive degree by inhibiting investments in novel developments.
The stakes in the agentic AI standardisation race are considerably higher than previous technology transitions. We are not merely deciding how software components communicate. We are potentially determining the architectural assumptions that will govern how artificial intelligence decomposes problems, executes autonomous tasks, and integrates with human workflows for decades to come.
The Competitive Logic Driving Convergence
To understand why the industry is rushing toward standardisation, one must first appreciate the economic pressures that have made fragmented agentic infrastructure increasingly untenable. The current landscape resembles the early days of mobile computing, when every manufacturer implemented its own charging connector and data protocol. Developers building agentic applications face a bewildering array of frameworks, each with its own conventions for tool integration, memory management, and inter-agent communication.
The numbers tell a compelling story. Gartner reported a staggering 1,445% surge in multi-agent system inquiries from the first quarter of 2024 to the second quarter of 2025. Industry analysts project the agentic AI market will surge from 7.8 billion dollars today to over 52 billion dollars by 2030. Gartner further predicts that 40% of enterprise applications will embed AI agents by the end of 2026, up from less than 5% in 2025.
This explosive growth has created intense pressure for interoperability. When Google announced its Agent2Agent protocol in April 2025, it launched with support from more than 50 technology partners including Atlassian, Box, Cohere, Intuit, Langchain, MongoDB, PayPal, Salesforce, SAP, ServiceNow, and Workday. The protocol was designed to enable agents built by different vendors to discover each other, negotiate capabilities, and coordinate actions across enterprise environments.
The competitive dynamics are straightforward. If the Agentic AI Foundation's standards become dominant, companies that previously held APIs hostage will be pressured to interoperate. Google and Microsoft could find it increasingly necessary to support MCP and AGENTS.md generically, lest customers demand cross-platform agents. The open ecosystem effectively buys customers choice, giving a competitive advantage to adherence.
Yet this race toward consensus obscures a fundamental tension. The Model Context Protocol was designed primarily to solve the problem of connecting AI systems to external tools and data sources. As Anthropic's original announcement explained, even the most sophisticated models are constrained by their isolation from data, trapped behind information silos and legacy systems. MCP provides a universal interface for reading files, executing functions, and handling contextual prompts. Think of it as USB-C for AI applications.
But USB-C was standardised after decades of experience with peripheral connectivity. The fundamental patterns for how humans interact with external devices were well understood. The same cannot be said for agentic AI. The field is evolving so rapidly that the orchestration patterns appropriate for today's language models may prove entirely inadequate for the reasoning systems emerging over the next several years.
When Reasoning Changes Everything
The reasoning model revolution of 2024 and 2025 has fundamentally altered how software engineering tasks can be decomposed and executed. OpenAI's o3, Google's Gemini 3 with Deep Think mode, and DeepSeek's R1 represent a qualitative shift in capability that extends far beyond incremental improvements in benchmark scores.
The pace of advancement has been staggering. In November 2025, Google introduced Gemini 3, positioning it as its most capable system to date, deployed from day one across Search, the Gemini app, AI Studio, Vertex AI, and the Gemini CLI. Gemini 3 Pro scores 1501 Elo on LMArena, achieving top leaderboard position, alongside 91.9% on GPQA Diamond and 76.2% on SWE-bench Verified for real-world software engineering tasks. The Deep Think mode pushes scientific reasoning benchmarks into the low to mid nineties, placing Gemini 3 at the front of late 2025 capabilities. By December 2025, Google was processing over one trillion tokens per day through its API.
Consider the broader transformation in software development. OpenAI reports that GPT-5 scores 74.9% on SWE-bench Verified compared to 69.1% for o3. On Aider polyglot, an evaluation of code editing, GPT-5 achieves 88%, representing a one-third reduction in error rate compared to o3. DeepSeek's R1 demonstrated that reasoning abilities can be incentivised through pure reinforcement learning, obviating the need for human-labelled reasoning trajectories. The company's research shows that such training facilitates the emergent development of advanced reasoning patterns including self-verification, reflection, and dynamic strategy adaptation. DeepSeek is now preparing to launch a fully autonomous AI agent by late 2025, signalling a shift from chatbots to practical, real-world agentic AI.
These capabilities demand fundamentally different decomposition strategies than the tool-calling patterns embedded in current protocols. A reasoning model that can plan multi-step tasks, execute on them, and continue to reason about results to update its plans represents a different computational paradigm than a model that simply calls predefined functions in response to user prompts.
The 2025 DORA Report captures this transformation in stark terms. AI adoption is near-universal, with 90% of survey respondents reporting they use AI at work. More than 80% believe it has increased their productivity. Yet AI adoption continues to have a negative relationship with software delivery stability. The researchers estimate that between two people who share the same traits, environment, and processes, the person with higher AI adoption will report higher levels of individual effectiveness but also higher levels of software delivery instability.
This productivity-stability paradox suggests that current development practices are struggling to accommodate the new capabilities. The DORA team found that AI coding assistants dramatically boost individual output, with 21% more tasks completed and 98% more pull requests merged, but organisational delivery metrics remain flat. Speed without stability, as the researchers concluded, is accelerated chaos.
The Lock-In Mechanism
The danger of premature standardisation lies not in the protocols themselves but in the architectural assumptions they embed. When developers build applications around specific orchestration patterns, those patterns become load-bearing infrastructure that cannot easily be replaced.
Microsoft's October 2025 decision to merge AutoGen with Semantic Kernel into a unified Microsoft Agent Framework illustrates both the problem and the attempted solution. The company recognised that framework fragmentation was creating confusion among developers, with multiple competing options each requiring different approaches to agent construction. General availability is set for the first quarter of 2026, with production service level agreements, multi-language support, and deep Azure integration.
Yet this consolidation also demonstrates how quickly architectural choices become entrenched. As one analysis noted, current agent frameworks are fragmented and lack enterprise features like observability, compliance, and durability. The push toward standardisation aims to address these gaps, but in doing so it may cement assumptions about how agents should be structured that prove limiting when new capabilities emerge.
The historical parallel to the OSI versus Internet protocols debate is instructive. Several central actors within OSI and Internet standardisation suggested that OSI's failure stemmed from being installed-base-hostile. The OSI protocols were not closely enough related to the already installed base of communication systems. The installed base is irreversible in the sense that radical, abrupt change of the kind implicitly assumed by OSI developers is highly unlikely.
The same irreversibility threatens agentic AI. Once thousands of enterprise applications embed MCP clients and servers, once development teams organise their workflows around specific orchestration patterns, the switching costs become prohibitive. Even if superior approaches emerge, the installed base may prevent their adoption.
Four major protocols have already emerged to handle agent communication: Model Context Protocol, Agent Communication Protocol, Agent-to-Agent Protocol, and Agent Network Protocol. Google's A2A Protocol alone has backing from over 50 companies including Microsoft and Salesforce. Yet as of September 2025, A2A development has slowed significantly, and most of the AI agent ecosystem has consolidated around MCP. Google Cloud still supports A2A for some enterprise customers, but the company has started adding MCP compatibility to its AI services. This represents a tacit acknowledgment that the developer community has chosen.
The Junior Developer Crisis
The technical standardisation debate unfolds against the backdrop of a more immediate crisis in the software development workforce. The rapid adoption of AI coding assistants has fundamentally disrupted the traditional career ladder for software engineers, with consequences that may prove more damaging than any technical limitation.
According to data from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, overall programmer employment fell a dramatic 27.5% between 2023 and 2025. A Stanford Digital Economy Study found that by July 2025, employment for software developers aged 22-25 had declined nearly 20% from its peak in late 2022. Across major U.S. technology companies, graduate hiring has dropped more than 50% compared to pre-2020 levels. In the UK, junior developer openings are down by nearly one-third since 2022.
The economics driving this shift are brutally simple. As one senior software engineer quoted by CIO observed, companies are asking why they should hire a junior developer for 90,000 dollars when GitHub Copilot costs 10 dollars. Many of the tasks once assigned to junior developers, including generating boilerplate code, writing unit tests, and maintaining APIs, are now reliably managed by AI assistants.
Industry analyst Vernon Keenan describes a quiet erosion of entry-level positions that will lead to a decline in foundational roles, a loss of mentorship opportunities, and barriers to skill development. Anthropic CEO Dario Amodei has warned that entry-level jobs are squarely in the crosshairs of automation. Salesforce CEO Marc Benioff announced the company would stop hiring new software engineers in 2025, citing AI-driven productivity gains.
The 2025 Stack Overflow Developer Survey captures the resulting tension. While 84% of developers now use or plan to use AI tools, trust has declined sharply. Only 33% of developers trust the accuracy of AI tools, while 46% actively distrust it. A mere 3% report highly trusting the output. The biggest frustration, cited by 66% of developers, is dealing with AI solutions that are almost right but not quite.
This trust deficit reflects a deeper problem. Experienced developers understand the limitations of AI-generated code but have the expertise to verify and correct it. Junior developers lack this foundation. There is sentiment that AI has made junior developers less competent, with some losing foundational skills that make for successful entry-level employees. Without proper mentorship, junior developers risk over-relying on AI.
The long-term implications are stark. The biggest challenge will be training the next generation of software architects. With fewer junior developer jobs, there will not be a natural apprenticeship to more senior roles. We risk creating a generation of developers who can prompt AI systems but cannot understand or debug the code those systems produce.
Architectural Decisions Migrate to Prompt Design
As reasoning models assume greater responsibility for code generation and system design, the locus of architectural decision-making is shifting in ways that current organisational structures are poorly equipped to handle. Prompt engineering is evolving from a novelty skill into a core architectural discipline.
The way we communicate with AI has shifted from simple trial-and-error prompts to something much more strategic, what researchers describe as prompt design as a discipline. If 2024 was about understanding the grammar of prompts, 2025 is about learning to design blueprints. Just as software architects do not just write code but design systems, prompt architects do not just write clever sentences. They shape conversations into repeatable frameworks that unlock intelligence, creativity, and precision.
The adoption statistics reflect this shift. According to the 2025 AI-Enablement Benchmark Report, the design and architecture phase of the software development lifecycle has an AI adoption rate of 52%. Teams using AI tools for design and architecture have seen a 28% increase in design iteration speed.
Yet this concentration of architectural power in prompt design creates new risks. Context engineering, as one CIO analysis describes it, is an architectural shift in how AI systems are built. Early generative AI was stateless, handling isolated interactions where prompt engineering was sufficient. Autonomous agents are fundamentally different. They persist across multiple interactions, make sequential decisions, and operate with varying levels of human oversight.
This shift demands collaboration between data engineering, enterprise architecture, security, and those who understand processes and strategy. A strong data foundation, not just prompt design, determines how well an agent performs. Agents need engineering, not just prompts.
The danger lies in concentrating too much decision-making authority in the hands of those who understand prompt patterns but lack deep domain expertise. Software architecture is not about finding a single correct answer. It is about navigating competing constraints, making tradeoffs, and defending reasoning. AI models can help reason through tradeoffs, generate architectural decision records, or compare tools, but only if prompted by someone who understands the domain deeply enough to ask the right questions.
The governance implications are significant. According to IAPP research, 50% of AI governance professionals are typically assigned to ethics, compliance, privacy, or legal teams. Yet traditional AI governance practices may not suffice with agentic systems. Governing agentic systems requires addressing their autonomy and dynamic behaviour in ways that current organisational structures are not designed to handle.
Fragmentation Across Model Families
The proliferation of reasoning models with different capabilities and cost profiles is creating a new form of fragmentation that threatens to balkanise development practices. Different teams within the same organisation may adopt different model families based on their specific requirements, leading to incompatible workflows and siloed expertise.
The ARC Prize Foundation's extensive testing of reasoning systems reached a striking conclusion: there is no clear winner. Different models excel at different tasks, and the optimal choice depends heavily on specific requirements around accuracy, cost, and latency. OpenAI's o3-medium and o3-high offer the highest accuracy while sacrificing cost and time. Google's Gemini 3 Flash, released in December 2025, delivers frontier-class performance at less than a quarter of the cost of Gemini 3 Pro, with pricing of 0.50 dollars per million input tokens compared to significantly higher rates for comparable models. DeepSeek offers an aggressive pricing structure with input costs as low as 0.07 dollars per million tokens.
For enterprises focused on return on investment, these tradeoffs matter enormously. The 2025 State of AI report notes that trade-offs remain, with long contexts raising latency and cost. Because different providers trust or cherry-pick different benchmarks, it has become more difficult to evaluate agents' performance. Choosing the right agent for a particular task remains a challenge.
This complexity is driving teams toward specialisation around particular model families. Some organisations standardise on OpenAI's ecosystem for its integration with popular development tools. Others prefer Google's offerings for their multimodal capabilities and long context windows of up to 1,048,576 tokens. Still others adopt DeepSeek's open models for cost control or air-gapped deployments.
The result is a fragmentation of development practices that cuts across traditional organisational boundaries. A team building customer-facing agents may use entirely different tools and patterns than a team building internal automation. Knowledge transfer becomes difficult. Best practices diverge. The organisational learning that should flow from widespread AI adoption becomes trapped in silos.
The 2025 DORA Report identifies platform engineering as a crucial foundation for unlocking AI value, with 90% of organisations having adopted at least one platform. There is a direct correlation between high-quality internal platforms and an organisation's ability to unlock the value of AI. Yet building such platforms requires making architectural choices that may lock organisations into specific model families and orchestration patterns.
The Technical Debt Acceleration
The rapid adoption of AI coding assistants has created what may be the fastest accumulation of technical debt in the history of software development. Code that works today may prove impossible to maintain tomorrow, creating hidden liabilities that will compound over time.
Forrester predicts that by 2025, more than 50% of technology decision-makers will face moderate to severe technical debt, with that number expected to hit 75% by 2026. Technical debt costs over 2.41 trillion dollars annually in the United States alone. The State of Software Delivery 2025 report by Harness found that the majority of developers spend more time debugging AI-generated code and more time resolving security vulnerabilities than before AI adoption.
The mechanisms driving this debt accumulation are distinctive. According to one analysis, there are three main vectors that generate AI technical debt: model versioning chaos, code generation bloat, and organisation fragmentation. These vectors, coupled with the speed of AI code generation, interact to cause exponential growth.
Code churn, defined as code that is added and then quickly modified or deleted, is projected to hit nearly 7% by 2025. This represents a red flag for instability and rework. As API evangelist Kin Lane observed, he has not seen so much technical debt being created in such a short period during his 35-year career in technology.
The security implications are equally concerning. A report from Ox Security titled Army of Juniors: The AI Code Security Crisis found that AI-generated code is highly functional but systematically lacking in architectural judgment. The Google 2024 DORA report found a trade-off between gains and losses with AI, where a 25% increase in AI usage quickens code reviews and benefits documentation but results in a 7.2% decrease in delivery stability.
The widening gap between organisations with clean codebases and those burdened by legacy systems creates additional stratification. Generative AI dramatically widens the gap in velocity between low-debt coding and high-debt coding. Companies with relatively young, high-quality codebases benefit the most from generative AI tools, while companies with gnarly, legacy codebases struggle to adopt them. The penalty for having a high-debt codebase is now larger than ever.
Research Structures for Anticipating Second-Order Effects
Navigating the transition to reasoning-capable autonomous systems requires organisational and research structures that most institutions currently lack. The rapid pace of change demands new approaches to technology assessment, workforce development, and institutional coordination.
The World Economic Forum estimates that 40% of today's workers will need major skill updates by 2030, and in information technology that number is likely even higher. Yet the traditional mechanisms for workforce development are poorly suited to a technology that evolves faster than educational curricula can adapt.
Several research priorities emerge from this analysis. First, longitudinal studies tracking the career trajectories of software developers across the AI transition would provide crucial data for workforce planning. The Stanford Digital Economy Study demonstrates the value of such research, but more granular analysis is needed to understand which skills remain valuable, which become obsolete, and how career paths are being restructured.
Second, technical research into the interaction between standardisation and innovation in agentic systems could inform policy decisions about when and how to pursue consensus. The historical literature on standards competition provides useful frameworks, but the unique characteristics of AI systems, including their rapid capability growth and opaque decision-making, may require new analytical approaches.
Third, organisational research examining how different governance structures affect AI adoption outcomes could help enterprises design more effective oversight mechanisms. The DORA team's finding that AI amplifies existing organisational capabilities, making strong teams stronger and struggling teams worse, suggests that the organisational context matters as much as the technology itself.
Fourth, security research focused specifically on the interaction between AI code generation and vulnerability introduction could help establish appropriate safeguards. The current pattern of generating functional but architecturally flawed code suggests fundamental limitations in how models understand system-level concerns.
Finally, educational research into how programming pedagogy should adapt to AI assistance could prevent the worst outcomes of skill atrophy. If junior developers are to learn effectively in an environment where AI handles routine tasks, new teaching approaches will be needed that focus on the higher-order skills that remain uniquely human.
Building Resilient Development Practices
The confluence of standardisation pressures, reasoning model capabilities, workforce disruption, and technical debt accumulation creates a landscape that demands new approaches to software development practice. Organisations that thrive will be those that build resilience into their development processes rather than optimising purely for speed.
Several principles emerge from this analysis. First, maintain architectural optionality. Avoid deep dependencies on specific orchestration patterns that may prove limiting as capabilities evolve. Design systems with clear abstraction boundaries that allow components to be replaced as better approaches emerge.
Second, invest in human capability alongside AI tooling. The organisations that will navigate this transition successfully are those that continue developing deep technical expertise in their workforce, not those that assume AI will substitute for human understanding.
Third, measure what matters. The DORA framework's addition of rework rate as a fifth core metric reflects the recognition that traditional velocity measures miss crucial dimensions of software quality. Organisations should develop measurement systems that capture the long-term health of their codebases and development practices.
Fourth, build bridges across model families. Rather than standardising on a single AI ecosystem, develop the institutional capability to work effectively across multiple model families. This requires investment in training, tooling, and organisational learning that most enterprises have not yet made.
Fifth, participate in standards development. The architectural choices being made in protocol specifications today will shape the development landscape for years to come. Organisations with strong opinions about how agentic systems should work have an opportunity to influence those specifications before they become locked in.
The transition to reasoning-capable autonomous systems represents both an enormous opportunity and a significant risk. The opportunity lies in the productivity gains that well-deployed AI can provide. The risk lies in the second-order effects that poorly managed deployment can create. The difference between these outcomes will be determined not by the capabilities of the AI systems themselves but by the organisational wisdom with which they are deployed.
The Protocols That Will Shape Tomorrow
The agentic AI standardisation race presents a familiar tension in new form. The industry needs common infrastructure to enable interoperability and reduce fragmentation. Yet premature consensus risks locking in architectural assumptions that may prove fundamentally limiting.
The Model Context Protocol's rapid adoption demonstrates both the hunger for standardisation and the danger of premature lock-in. MCP achieved in one year what many standards take a decade to accomplish: genuine industry-wide adoption and governance transition to a neutral foundation. Yet the protocol was designed for a particular model of AI capability, one where agents primarily call tools and retrieve context. The reasoning models now emerging may demand entirely different decomposition strategies.
Meta's notable absence from the Agentic AI Foundation hints at alternative futures. Almost every major agentic player from Google to AWS to Microsoft has joined, but Meta has not signed on and published reports indicate it will not be joining soon. The company is reportedly shifting toward a proprietary strategy centred on a new revenue-generating model. Whether this represents a mistake or a prescient bet on different architectural approaches remains to be seen.
The historical pattern suggests that the standards which endure are those designed with sufficient flexibility to accommodate unforeseen developments. The Internet protocols succeeded where OSI failed in part because they were more tolerant of variation and evolution. The question for agentic AI is whether current standardisation efforts embed similar flexibility or whether they will constrain the systems of tomorrow to the architectural assumptions of today.
For developers, enterprises, and policymakers navigating this landscape, the imperative is to engage critically with standardisation rather than accepting it passively. The architectural choices being made now will shape the capabilities and limitations of agentic systems for years to come. Those who understand both the opportunities and the risks of premature consensus will be better positioned to influence the outcome.
The reasoning revolution is just beginning. The protocols and patterns that emerge from this moment will determine whether artificial intelligence amplifies human capability or merely accelerates the accumulation of technical debt and workforce disruption. The standards race matters, but the wisdom with which we run it matters more.
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Tim Green
UK-based Systems Theorist & Independent Technology Writer
Tim explores the intersections of artificial intelligence, decentralised cognition, and posthuman ethics. His work, published at smarterarticles.co.uk, challenges dominant narratives of technological progress while proposing interdisciplinary frameworks for collective intelligence and digital stewardship.
His writing has been featured on Ground News and shared by independent researchers across both academic and technological communities.
ORCID: 0009-0002-0156-9795
Email: tim@smarterarticles.co.uk
